Good morning, Raymond.
Here's how your campaigns are performing — Jan 2024 — Dec 2025
Total Revenue
$1.4M
+12.4%
vs. prior period
Incremental ROI
3.85x
90% CI: [3.22x, 4.51x]
incremental return per $1 spent
Model Fit
R² 0.94
MAPE 2.1%
how well the model explains your data
Incremental Revenue
$577K
90% CI: [$498K, $652K]
revenue your ads created
Revenue Decomposition
Intercept, time effects, controls, and each channel's incremental contribution
AI Insights
Google Search has headroom on the Hill curve
With ec at $48K and current spend at $32K, Google Search is operating well below its half-saturation point. The model estimates shifting $20K from Meta could generate an additional $31K in incremental revenue.
Meta Ads past the half-saturation point
Meta's current spend ($42K) exceeds its ec ($32K), meaning you're on the steep part of diminishing returns. Consider reallocating $7-10K toward channels with lower saturation.
Channel Performance
Incremental ROI, cost per incremental outcome, and efficiency grades across all channels
| Channel | Spend | Incremental ROI | CPIK | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Meta Ads Paid Social | $42,150 | 5.69x [4.82x, 6.61x] | $32 | A+ ELITE |
Owned Media | $8,400 | 7.32x [5.84x, 8.91x] | $18 | A+ ELITE |
Google Search Paid Search | $31,800 | 4.87x [3.95x, 5.82x] | $39 | A STRONG |
YouTube Video | $18,200 | 4.01x [2.89x, 5.18x] | $44 | B OPTIMAL |
Display Programmatic | $12,450 | 3.05x [2.11x, 4.02x] | $61 | B OPTIMAL |
TikTok Paid Social | $9,800 | 2.44x [1.52x, 3.41x] | $74 | C SCALING |